Lately, Stephen Colbert’s presidential campaign coverage has been opening with a visual of the Democratic donkey running full speed ahead towards a fork in a road and then splitting in two upon collision with a street sign that points Obama one way and Clinton the other. Gruesome though it may be, the Colbert visual aptly summarizes a growing fear amongst Democrats that the continued infighting between Obama and Clinton is turning a general election that should have been a slam dunk for the Democrats into one that is now John McCain’s to lose. With that in mind, and with Clinton facing virtually insurmountable deficits in pledged delegates and the popular vote, several Democrats—admittedly, Obama supporters—have begun calling on her to withdraw from the race for the good of the party. But would that actually be in the best interests of the party? Is the protracted campaign really hurting the Democrats’ general election chances?
Certainly, Hillary Clinton does not think so. Despite being up against seemingly impossible odds, Hillary has shown no sign that she plans to drop out of the race any time soon. In fact, she has said repeatedly that she plans to take the nomination fight to the convention floor in Denver if she must. But barring an unlikely Obama implosion, her only window to the nomination now rests in making Obama seem so unelectable that the superdelegates would choose to overturn the voters’ decisions. Hence the “kitchen sink” that just keeps on coming, the constant harping on Jeremiah Wright and the not-so-subtle hints that John McCain is more ready to be Commander-in-Chief than Barack Obama. Admittedly, a fair amount of pot shots have come from the Obama campaign as well, but regardless of which side is throwing more mud, the end result is the same: Clinton and Obama are dirtying each up other while McCain is getting a free pass.
Both Clinton and Obama have been steadily dipping in head-to-head polls against the presumptive Republican nominee. The latest averages from Real Clear Politics have Obama leading McCain by a statistically insignificant margin of 0.6 percent and Clinton trailing by 1.6 percent, a far cry from the leads both were registering just months ago. A recently conducted Marist poll of likely voters in New York has McCain narrowly beating Obama (48-46) and only barely losing to Clinton (46-48)—in New York!
Granted, much of this can be attributed to the Republicans finally coalescing around McCain, but no one can deny that a steady disillusionment with the Democratic candidates’ infighting has played a part. As the campaign has dragged on, both Obama’s and Hillary’s unfavorable ratings have crept steadily higher. Even more disturbing, according to a Gallup poll released in late March, 28 percent of Clinton supporters now say they will vote for McCain over Obama, and 19 percent of Obama backers say they will do the same if Clinton is the nominee. And the longer the campaign drags on, the deeper these divisions will become, and the less time there will be to repair them.
In the face of such ominous polling, however, what many Democrats do not realize is that the drawn out campaign may actually help the party in the long run. First of all, the close fight has forced both candidates to fiercely compete in all 50 states (well, 48… sorry, Florida and Michigan), leaving behind organizational infrastructure that can be utilized in the general election by the eventual nominee. In swing states and in traditionally red states that may be in play, Democratic grassroots organization has a huge head start over that of the Republicans.
Moreover, the exciting contest on the Democratic side has only served to widen an “enthusiasm gap” that exists between Democrats and Republicans. In state after state, Democratic turnout, particularly youth turnout, has been record-breaking, vastly outstripping that of the Republicans. Voter registration drives have greatly increased the Democratic Party numbers, bringing many former Independents and moderate Republicans into the fold as well as first-time voters. In Pennsylvania and North Carolina alone, registration drives largely spearheaded by the Obama campaign have resulted in over 300,000 more newly registered Democrats than Republicans in 2008.
More importantly, the lengthy contest has strengthened the likely nominee—Obama—by teaching him how to take and throw punches against a tough opponent and by allowing for him to air out and deal with much of his dirty laundry, most notably his relationship with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, far in advance of the general election. The Wright controversy was an explosive issue and the greatest challenge to Obama’s candidacy thus far, but he dealt with it deftly and powerfully, reassuring second-guessing supporters and winning over still more. Though the Republicans will continue to harp on the Wright issue, and it will surely cost him some votes, Obama is better off having dealt with it in March rather than in September or October.
Though the downside of this drawn out campaign is undeniable, its equally undeniable upside may in fact prove more powerful in the long run, so long as the nomination fight does not actually continue all the way to the convention. And I do not think that it will. For all her bluster, Hillary Clinton knows that she will be hard-pressed for reasons to continue on if the primary calendar runs its course and she still trails in pledged delegates and the popular vote. At that point, she most likely will drop out. To press on against the voters’ will by any measure would be political suicide. In the unlikely scenario that she still refuses to drop out, the remaining undecided superdelegates, unwilling to overturn both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote, will force her out.
If Hillary drops (or is forced) out after the last primary on June 3, the Democratic Party will have plenty of time to reverse the damage wrought by the nomination battle. Voters have short memories, and the bitterness of party infighting will be all but forgotten by November. Current Hillary supporters who say they will vote for McCain over Obama will have five months of Democratic unification attempts and stark Obama-McCain comparisons to reconsider; most will change their minds, especially after Hillary inevitably endorses Obama. Come November, polls conducted in April and May will mean little.
But the upsides of the protracted battle—organizational infrastructure, grassroots energy, newly registered Democrats and the strengthening of Obama as a candidate—will continue to pay dividends in November. So keep on truckin’, Hillary. For now, you’re helping more than you’re hurting.