Senator Obama and his campaign are threatening to quash the hopes of conservative critics, myself included, who speculated that an untested idealist with radical ties and vacuous positions might wilt in the spotlight. He is thriving on the trail and his organization is making a mockery of their Republican counterparts. Obama has undergone a much needed transformation from the primary candidate who famously derided the motives of gun owners in San Francisco to the presidential candidate who courts evangelicals with greater vigor, and more specific policy proposals, than his Republican rival.

While McCain’s campaign was being re-shuffled, Obama pounced. Rather than allow a narrative about his changing positions to develop over the course of the campaign Obama moved hard to the middle on several issues in the course of just a few days. The McCain campaign was in such a state of disorder that it proved incapable of a coordinated response. Obama OKed the Supreme Court’s decision on guns while objecting to the ruling forbidding the death penalty for child rapists. Those were both 5-4 votes, and in both cases he sided with Scalia, Thomas, Alito and Roberts. Unlikely company indeed. Next came his announcement of faith-based initiatives as a central piece of his domestic policy platform while speaking at a church. Then he staked out a position to the right of Roe on abortion and insisted that health of the mother exceptions must really mean something other than “feeling blue.”

During this time McCain has accomplished next to nothing. He is trying to get ahead on the energy issue but has no real expertise in that area and is incapable of making a case for his candidacy based on anything other than the war and national security. It remains to be seen whether speaking in front of a green back drop will become to American politicians what speaking under an umbrella is to British politicians. (Neville Chamberlain famously delivered his “peace in our time” speech, in celebration of Munich, from under an umbrella because it was drizzling. For some reason the umbrella got blamed, not tough enough to stand in the rain, not tough enough to stand up to Hitler I guess the logic goes. Nevermind that Pat Buchanon’s new book argues that Chamberlain was a saint while Churchill was a thug. Can he disappear from my television screen forever already? Does anybody see him and say ‘Oh good, I love Pat Buchanon!’ I mean, really, he’s embarrasing.)

Senator Obama now has an opportunity to clinch the election. The chattering classes have gone wild over Obama’s position on Iraq. He initially announced that he would heed the advice of commanders on the ground and signalled that during his trip to Iraq he may further refine his policy. He quickly clarified, stating that on his first day in office he would order the joint chiefs to organize a withdrawal to be completed within sixteen months, returning to his previous position. Those positions are not neccessarily compatible; what if the advice of the generals is that a pullout within the sixteen month limit would be precipitous, counterproductive and require us to return while staying longer to cement newly won gains may yield a lasting peace? Obama will have a golden opportunity during his trip to Iraq to destroy the entire rationale for McCain’s candidacy. He should simply concede that the surge has worked and commit to staying long enough to cement its gains. After that he should promise to turn a safe Iraq over to the Al Maliki government and keep American troops in harms way not a moment longer, while divorcing himself from the arbitrary 16 month guideline. If McCain can’t draw a distinction on the war he will find himself a fish out of water, unable to make the case for conservative positions on hardly any other issue. Being painted as soft during a time of war is the only way that Obama may yet manage to yield his well earned electoral advantages. If he takes that issue off the table McCain might as well pack up shop early.