John McCain is not an ideological conservative. Indeed, throughout his career he has taken positions which many on the right find indefensible. At some point during his political life, McCain has found a way to anger or annoy every major constituency of the GOP. Here is a beginners guide to McCain’s problems on the right:

Campaign Finance Reform:

For many this was John McCain’s original sin. After having been smeared by Dubya in South Carolina, McCain resolved to pass a law which would help prevent such anonymous attacks in the future. The result was McCain-Feingold, the starkest restriction of political speech ever passed by Congress, which has done nothing to improve the tone of campaigns. Before McCain-Feingold, we could at least expect candidates to control the anonymous ads attacking their opponents for fear of people thinking they were doing the attacking themselves. Now, because of all the 527’s or PAC’s, the candidates can deny having any control over these independent attack dogs who swear allegiance to no one. Think Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. George Will has called the law the worst he has seen in all his time in Washington. McCain-Feingold also marked the first time that McCain worked with a liberal senator to do things conservatives found regrettable.

Gay Marriage, Abortion, Judges:

McCain doesn’t do poorly with social conservatives but he isn’t wildly popular either. While McCain votes the right way on abortion and gay marriage, he is not deeply committed to either position and often excuses himself from making the conservative case on these points by deferring to federalism. While almost all conservatives would agree that overturning Roe v. Wade and returning abortion to the states would be a good place to start, gay marriage is a whole other bag of tricks. McCain does not support a Federal Marriage Amendment, he insists the states should be able to decide the issue for themselves while registering his own sympathies for the traditional marriage position. Unfortunately the “Full Faith and Credit Clause” of the Constitution makes this argument untenable. The states will not be allowed to decide for themselves, rather the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court has decided for everyone. While states will try to get around the clause and not recognize gay marriages conducted in other states, this battle will eventually have to be fought in the courts or through the amendment process. Speaking of the courts, many conservatives are still angry at McCain for being a member of the gang of 14 which negotiated a compromise with the democratic minority in the senate which left some very qualified conservative judges off the bench. Judges are a sensitive issue for conservatives due to our prior mistakes with regards to the Supreme Court. Few believe that McCain will nominate or fight for a conservative judge if he has the opportunity to make an appointment. Rather they fear that he will seek an accommodation with the democratic senate majority and appoint a moderate or a liberal. While McCain may eventually come around, he is not a culture warrior, devoted to the social conservative agenda.

Immigration:

This constituency, if it lasts into the general election cycle, may pose McCain’s biggest problem on the right. Throughout the primary campaign McCain was skewered for his McCain-Kennedy immigration reform bill. While the bill did not propose amnesty, it did propose letting illegal immigrants remain in the country under certain circumstances. For the Michael Savages and Tom Tancredos of this world, that was enough to caricature the bill as an open border, full amnesty, fiasco. During the primary season large percentages of voters in each state cited immigration as their top issue, these voters opposed McCain by wide margins. I think it is quite difficult to predict how many of these voters will still have immigration in the front of their minds come November, if the answer is a lot, then McCain could be in big trouble. But only if these voters have a more conservative choice on immigration . . .

Bob Barr:

Former Congressman from Georgia, has all but announced his run for President as the candidate of the Libertarian party. This is exactly the sort of candidate who could hurt McCain the worst on the right. He will come out strongly against McCain-Feingold, against McCain-Kennedy, and he will be stronger than McCain on the second amendment. Bob Barr could just turn out to be John McCain’s Ralph Nader.

So, your thoughts? Which constituency is most likely to abandon McCain? Anyone I left off? Maybe you think some part of the GOP is going cold on Iraq and will split the party on foreign policy?