Conservative Thought

McCain’s surprise choice of Governor Palin as his VP has dominated the post-DNC news cycle. Does the pick represent McCain trying his hand at identity politics; little more than a shameless attempt to attract disaffected Hillary supporters by simply picking a woman? Has McCain found a political soul-mate in Palin as David Brooks suggested in the editorial page of the New York Times? Or is the McCain campaign simply desperate to capture the headlines and distract attention from a very well executed democratic convention?

At first I thought the pick was too clever by half. As far as I could tell it was meant to raise the prospect of the absurd: That a one-term governor with no foreign policy experience to speak of might be placed one heart-beat away from the presidency in a time of war. Raising such a specter would then lead people to reflect that the only thing more ridiculous than electing a VP with such a scant resume would be to elect a candidate with no foreign policy or executive experience to the actual office of President. By refocusing the election on the experience question the McCain camp would concede the experience deficit at VP just to reintroduce the discussion with regards to their advantage at the top of the ticket. This struck me as a desperate move, undertaken by a campaign quickly running out of negative ads to drive news cycles that saw the election slipping out of reach.

After last night I am not feeling so negative. It was Chris Mathews who pointed out, after Palin’s speech, that she was not pitching to Hillary voters nor was she there to emphasize any one issue. What she brings to the ticket is a cultural challenge to Obama. The McCain camp recalled Obama’s biggest gaffe of the campaign, his “bitter” speech in San Fran about how small towns in PA cling to guns and religion, so they went out and found a gun owning, religious woman from a small town to really stick it to him. I’m not sure it will work, and the whole thing may yet go down in flames, but I think it gives McCain a chance to win, rather than just make it close.

A quick note before I get to my impressions of the forum on the presidency at Saddleback Church this past weekend: Obama and his website have finally been caught lying about his vote on the Born-Alive Infant Protection Act (http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZTBkYTYzZDNjNDgyMWJmMzMxYzljYjYxNmEwMTdhYWE=&w=MA==).  Dave Ullman and I had a good discussion about this earlier this summer in a previous post which I encourage anyone who is interested in the issue to check out. Worth watching if the media presses Obama on this or if they let him off the hook. On to Saddleback.

Biggest Loser: The Media. Anyone who watched the hype for this event was exposed to talking head after talking head drooling over the prospect that evangelicals had abandoned non-negotiable issues, like life and marriage, in favor of a big government approach to things like health-care and poverty, and might even be persuaded to ditch the GOP for Obama. The forum’s audience provided the sternest rebuke to those who had persuaded themselves that serious religious folk would look past Obama’s stance on the issues, specifically abortion, that brought together groups like the moral majority in the first place. The biggest applause line of the night was McCain’s promise to be a pro-life president, closely followed by his insistence that life begins at conception.

That’s not to say that we on the Right shouldn’t welcome the debate about how to best provide care for the needy. As Pastor Warren pointed out, more than 70 percent of Americans agree that faith-based charities are more effective than government poverty programs.  If the Left thinks they can appeal to the Christian obligation of solidarity with the poor by making the IRS the agent of charity they have another thing coming.

Big Winner: McCain. About half-way through his hour I had one of those “Dude, where’s my car?” moments. The bumbler in front of the green screen of two months ago had been replaced by a concise, eloquent, apt candidate! For the first time ever I felt McCain actually cared about the issues near and dear to the hearts of social cons. He managed to not mention campaign finance reform for one whole hour and even critically altered his position on a federal marriage amendment in case the courts force Massachusetts’ gay marriages on the whole country. If this is a preview of things to come in the debates I might just be at a victory party instead of crying myself to sleep Nov. 4th.

Meh: Obama. Not bad, not great. Exactly what we have come to expect from Obama; thoughtful, elegant answers without too many specifics or commitments. To be fair, considering the tough spot he was in, he did pretty darn well. Trying to court Clinton supporters while speaking to a church full of evangelicals about abortion is a little like trying to apply to law school from prison. The only really rough moment was when he said that determining when babies get human rights was “above his pay grade.” Well I am glad he is only running for President and not something really important.  On a serious note, he probably left feeling awfully good about his decision NOT to engage McCain in a series of town halls.

Did anyone else tune in?

Since the end of the Cold War the only bear most Americans have had to worry about has been the occassional bad market striking at their 401k’s. With this past week’s invasion of Georgia, however, and today’s threat (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080815/ap_on_re_eu/russia_us_missile_defense) against Poland, an aggressive Russia may be a reality again. Poland is a member of NATO and it is hard to believe that this is anything more than bluster but, even short of starting World War III, Russia can make quite a stink. It controls a good part of the world’s oil supplies and continues to be the main source of oil for the ex-soviet NATO states that make up much of eastern europe. This is obviously not good news, but, as far as politics are concerned, you have to believe this favors McCain. Obama polls ahead of McCain on every issue except national security and foreign policy. Obama would certainly have rather had the country focused on the economy heading into the conventions and the veep choices.

A couple weeks ago the McCain campaign started to air attack ads focused on Obama’s celebrity. The first one, famously featuring Paris Hilton, was pretty stupid but drove the news cycle for the whole week. The second one, called “the one,” was actually funny. This latest ad, called “Fan Club,” is incredibly stupid. Did they really pay someone to make this? What a joke. Link below.

http://johnmccain.com/involving/petition2.aspx?guid=4160d817-603f-4803-8ef7-d83dee46c731

Sen. McCaskill vs Carly Fiorina on Meet The Press this morning. The contrast between a politician and a business executive was stark. McCaskill preached the unhappy gospel of class warfare and overregulation. When asked how Obama planned to pay for his proposed middle class tax cuts she explained that they would be taken from that evil top 1 percent of earners. Once upon a time the Democratic party was better than this. Gov. Al Smith once said that he would take off his coat and fight anyone in his party who tried to make political gains by inciting class differences. McCaskill rambled on about coroporate pay and the odious medicare companies who made 15 billion dollars “on the backs of taxpayers.” Yes, that damn free market, lets start picking arbitrary numbers out of the air for what ceo’s should make and invent a number at which point legitimately gained profits become “windfall”. She then cited the boom years of Clinton as an example of how an economy should be run. Nevermind that those years coincided with the vast expansion of free trade, the abolition of federal welfare, and the rejection of socialized medicine. Two of those three fights are alive today, we killed the perverse incentives of welfare for good, and the GOP is on the right side of both of them. She also denied that teachers unions have too much power in the Democratic party, moments after Fiorina insisted McCain could balance the budget in four years. This exchange was a useful reminder that smart people will say nearly anything, no matter how ridiculous, to be selected as Vice President.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/12/us/politics/12obama.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=todayspaper&adxnnlx=1215893032-ceMOLJ2mKolZnvn8vq7qlQ

The organizers of a televised town hall at a military base have gone public to pressure Obama to accept their invitation. He really has no good options on this one. He can show up to a town hall, McCain’s favorite format, about the war in Iraq, McCain’s favorite subject, full of active duty soldiers and vets, McCain’s strongest demographic, or he can blow off the largest, and perhaps only, military event of the election season during a time of war. Yikes! That is a heck of decision. It would certainly be courageous of him to show up and make the case for withdrawal, or whatever his position will be come August, but boy what a risk, the last thing one needs is to have the whole country watch your candidate get booed by soldiers if his message falls flat.

I bet the polls will have a lot to do with this decision. If he is ahead and comfortable I would expect him to be somewhere else. If his lead keeps slipping, the new Newsweek poll reports he is only up 3 with 85 percent of remaining undecideds being white voters, I think he might take the chance and engage McCain on his home turf.

I hope he shows up, a town hall about the war would be valuable, it would be nice to watch the candidates defend their positions up close and in person rather than through press releases and snide comments as has been the practice so far.

What does everyone else think? Too risky? A can’t miss opportunity? How damaging would it be to not go?

Of course, anytime I write something nice about Sen. Obama it probably means the Left is getting uneasy, some people want hope and change back without the moderate policies it takes to win:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/08/opinion/08herbert.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/obama_leaves_blue_women_seeing.html

Senator Obama and his campaign are threatening to quash the hopes of conservative critics, myself included, who speculated that an untested idealist with radical ties and vacuous positions might wilt in the spotlight. He is thriving on the trail and his organization is making a mockery of their Republican counterparts. Obama has undergone a much needed transformation from the primary candidate who famously derided the motives of gun owners in San Francisco to the presidential candidate who courts evangelicals with greater vigor, and more specific policy proposals, than his Republican rival.

While McCain’s campaign was being re-shuffled, Obama pounced. Rather than allow a narrative about his changing positions to develop over the course of the campaign Obama moved hard to the middle on several issues in the course of just a few days. The McCain campaign was in such a state of disorder that it proved incapable of a coordinated response. Obama OKed the Supreme Court’s decision on guns while objecting to the ruling forbidding the death penalty for child rapists. Those were both 5-4 votes, and in both cases he sided with Scalia, Thomas, Alito and Roberts. Unlikely company indeed. Next came his announcement of faith-based initiatives as a central piece of his domestic policy platform while speaking at a church. Then he staked out a position to the right of Roe on abortion and insisted that health of the mother exceptions must really mean something other than “feeling blue.”

During this time McCain has accomplished next to nothing. He is trying to get ahead on the energy issue but has no real expertise in that area and is incapable of making a case for his candidacy based on anything other than the war and national security. It remains to be seen whether speaking in front of a green back drop will become to American politicians what speaking under an umbrella is to British politicians. (Neville Chamberlain famously delivered his “peace in our time” speech, in celebration of Munich, from under an umbrella because it was drizzling. For some reason the umbrella got blamed, not tough enough to stand in the rain, not tough enough to stand up to Hitler I guess the logic goes. Nevermind that Pat Buchanon’s new book argues that Chamberlain was a saint while Churchill was a thug. Can he disappear from my television screen forever already? Does anybody see him and say ‘Oh good, I love Pat Buchanon!’ I mean, really, he’s embarrasing.)

Senator Obama now has an opportunity to clinch the election. The chattering classes have gone wild over Obama’s position on Iraq. He initially announced that he would heed the advice of commanders on the ground and signalled that during his trip to Iraq he may further refine his policy. He quickly clarified, stating that on his first day in office he would order the joint chiefs to organize a withdrawal to be completed within sixteen months, returning to his previous position. Those positions are not neccessarily compatible; what if the advice of the generals is that a pullout within the sixteen month limit would be precipitous, counterproductive and require us to return while staying longer to cement newly won gains may yield a lasting peace? Obama will have a golden opportunity during his trip to Iraq to destroy the entire rationale for McCain’s candidacy. He should simply concede that the surge has worked and commit to staying long enough to cement its gains. After that he should promise to turn a safe Iraq over to the Al Maliki government and keep American troops in harms way not a moment longer, while divorcing himself from the arbitrary 16 month guideline. If McCain can’t draw a distinction on the war he will find himself a fish out of water, unable to make the case for conservative positions on hardly any other issue. Being painted as soft during a time of war is the only way that Obama may yet manage to yield his well earned electoral advantages. If he takes that issue off the table McCain might as well pack up shop early.

James Kirchick’s piece on Politico today noted the seemingly coordinated criticism of McCain’s military record by Obama supporters or surrogates: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11463.html

I can’t believe that this is, as Kirchick suggests, something being done at the behest of the campaign. Why on earth would Obama, leading in every poll, change the message of the campaign to personal attacks which just happen to highlight McCain’s greatest strength? Which leads me to my next question, what the hell is going on here? Is there any explaining this, or is this just an unfortunate coincidence? I would expect the McCain camp to try and keep this going for as long as possible.

In other news, the energy crisis has started to emerge, along with the economy and the war, as the big issue of the campaign. Unfortunately there are no easy answers. McCain wants to drill more, but, as the Dems point out, the oil companies haven’t even drilled on what they have yet and it takes an awfully long time to dig wells and start extraction. Obama wants to impose a ‘windfall profits’ tax. Nevermind that the whole scheme of windfall profits is essentially to treat society’s most productive members as criminals, the tax would just be passed along to consumers anyway. Nuclear energy is an option the candidates seem to agree on, Obama’s position is still unclear, but Nuclear plants don’t spring up over night and nobody wants the waste dumped in their state.

I hear they have oil in Iraq, exploitive imperialism anyone? Yes, I am kidding.

This past Tuesday the Boston Celtics finally got done playing Ronald Reagan to the Los Angeles Lakers Walter Mondale. For the week and a half that the series lasted the Celtics did everything right. They played tougher defense, they competed with a higher level of intensity, they executed their offense better, they hit the big shots, and their fans provided an atmosphere in which losing was probably impossible. The series has already been dissected too many times and every angle has probably been covered. Nevertheless, as a long suffering Celtics fan, I feel obliged to share the moments I will remember from these NBA finals and at least try to explain what made this team so special and why this championship is by far the most satisfying of the several that Boston teams have won recently.

1. Paul Pierce’s First Three After Getting Hurt in Game 1
Boston was buzzing with anticipation for game 1. A wild playoff ride was now guaranteed to culminate with a dramatic finals series against the hated Lakers. Three quarters into the first game the wheels started to fall off the wagon. Kobe was being Kobe, Ray Allen still appeared to be 2 parts expiring contract and 1 part washed up all star, the Lakers had a small lead and looked poised to steal game 1. Then Pierce went down and it was all over. The Celtics were going to be robbed of the moment they had worked for all year long.
Anyone who has watched Paul Pierce for these last ten years knew he would have to be killed to be kept off that court. He was coming back. The question was would he be effective at all, or would he just be a liability jeopardizing the rest of his career by playing with a serious injury? When he put up that first three pointer all the air went out of the arena. The entire series hung in the balance. When it rattled home off the back rim the place exploded. Pierce’s reaction was priceless, he turned back towards the celtics basket and calmly nodded his head as if to say “C’mon, after ten years of pain you thought I was gonna miss this? We’re gonna be just fine” The next trip down the floor he hit another three for good measure. Celtics go on to win game 1. Paul Pierce guarantees his number will be retired. Great moment.

2. Ray Allen Clinches Game 4 By Torching Sasha Vujacic
If you watch the NBA, and you aren’t a Lakers fan, you hate Sasha Vujacic. He is a pesky in your face defender who flops and whines. His hair is obnoxious. He celebrates by taunting opposing players. He is Ivan Drago without the steroids. With the clock winding down and the Lakers trailing by two in desperate need of a stop Sasha found himself one on one with Ray Allen. Allen had had a brutal playoffs but had found his stroke again in Game 2 of the Finals and had been playing at the top of his game. Ray Allen is the exact opposite of Vujacic. For the roughly 150 years that he has been in the league he has been nothing but a class act. He works hard on defense, never flops, hits big shots, and plays the game the right way.
It seemed fitting that the biggest moment of the most important game of the series came down to these two guys, one on one. Allen took the shot clock all the way down before blowing past Sasha for a game clinching layup. Vujacic didn’t even move his feet. He took a lazy swipe at the ball from behind then watched and yelled as Allen went up to finish the play. He spent the next tv time out pouting on the the bench. As Allen walked past him back up the floor to the celtics bench he didn’t even look at him. No trash talking, just a well earned fist pump and a satisfied grin. Good Guys 3, Bad Guys 1, Vujacic Exposed. I hope that moment haunts his nightmares for the rest of his career.

3. Boston Crowd Chants “You’re Not Jordan” to Kobe in Game 6
Kobe Bryant is a very good player. He’s also a dirtbag. He had the whole cheating on his wife thing a couple years back. He whined all off-season about how he wanted to be traded. He has never won anything without Shaq and for some reason commentators still insisted on comparing him to Michael Jordan who was (gulp) the greatest player of all time (apologies to Russell and Bird, I just damned myself to Celtics purgatory for at least a century after I die). Nevertheless, despite the wild comparisons and the promises of a Lakers romp by many experts, the Celtics had finished off the Lakers with the 4th quarter still to come in game 6. As Kobe found himself at the free throw line with the Lakers trailing by approximately a million points the Boston crowd reminded Kobe why Jordan was the greatest, he never lost in the finals, and he always came up big when his team needed him the most. As chants of “You’re Not Jordan” rolled down from the balconies and eventually spread across the whole stadium, Kobe could do nothing but shoot one more meaningless free throw in a game he had failed to take over. Then he had to watch the Celtics celebrate their seventeenth championship. The dream season slowly came to the perfect ending. The league’s best team triumphed over the league’s best player, and order was restored to the basketball universe.