Three big events have happened, are happening, or will happen this week in Southeast Asia:
1) Representatives of the Dalai Lama’s government-in-exile met with Chinese government officials in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen on Sunday to reopen dialogue for the first time since the Tibetan riots in March. Though nothing formal was resolved, both sides billed the talks as a success and announced plans to continue meeting.
2) A massive cyclone hit China’s southern neighbor Myanmar last Saturday, with the death toll already in the tens of thousands. The ruling military junta in Myanmar has refused to let large-scale foreign aid operations into the country, and relief teams have amassed in Thailand awaiting permission to enter. The United States warned today that delayed action could result in a final death count of over 100,000.
3) A national referendum is set to take place this coming Saturday in Myanmar on a new constitution. The proposed constitution would further entrench military rule, reserving a certain portion of seats in a new parliament for soldiers and complicating any attempts at future amendments. Despite the recent disaster, the junta has resisted calls to postpone the vote.
So the Chinese government has received nothing but bad press since it violently suppressed riots in Tibet, and it has renewed dialogue with Tibetan leaders this week in hopes of reversing the trend. A good start. But the conflict has escalated to such an extent that mere dialogue will not be enough to win back the international community. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already decided to boycott the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy has threatened to join her. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Nancy Pelosi have all urged President Bush to consider staying away as well.
If China hopes to convince these leaders to attend the August ceremony, the Chinese government must make it politically viable for them to do so. Public opinion has turned so far away from China on Tibet, Myanmar, and Sudan that the Chinese government must go further than these meetings with the Tibetan envoy. China must take the lead on addressing events 2 and 3, the junta’s refusal to allow disaster aid to enter Myanmar and the upcoming constitutional referendum, if it retains any hope of healing these wounds by August.
The situation in Myanmar has become a full-blown crisis, and the Chinese government is the only major player left with any influence over the Burmese government. Severe political repression is one (very bad) thing, but denying the Burmese people access to vital care is another beast entirely. The Chinese government must lean heavily on the junta to give foreign aid workers unlimited access to the areas affected by the storm. The Chinese government must also take these steps quickly, as the crisis continues to worsen.
China must also pressure the government to, at the very least, delay the constitutional referendum for several weeks. The junta has gone full speed ahead in the last month, doing their damndest to make sure that the new constitution passes. Convincing the junta to shift its focus away from the vote and onto the current emergency might compel the junta to scale back the provisions in the constitution. The increased attention might also force the Burmese government to uphold even the smallest pretense of fairness when the vote actually occurs, but at the very least pushing the referendum back would give the opposition a little time breathing room to mobilize.
The Chinese government has already witnessed the effects of escalating this conflict as the torch relay has proceeded through Paris, San Francisco, and Hong Kong in recent weeks. Railing against the bias of the foreign media and pointing the finger at the United States’ transgressions in Iraq has only aggravated the situation, and stirring up nationalistic fervor in anticipation of a truly international event is not in the country’s best interest. China can’t afford to let the dispute linger any longer. The success of the Games is at stake, as well as the country’s international reputation. And China would do well to remember that the latter will persist well past August.
2 responses so far ↓
1 caravan70 (dpshupe92) // May 8, 2008 at 5:11 am
An excellent post, Meredith. And excellent writing, to boot.
The situation in Myanmar (the former Burma) has indeed become a full-blown crisis, and I suspect the Chinese will take steps to tamp it down in the next few weeks. I don’t think that will prevent additional protests from breaking out, because there is certainly the Darfur issue to deal with, but it will in many people’s estimation prevent the Olympic torch from being an issue in the coming months, in that it will be sitting comfortably at home (Beijing) while the issues survive.
These issues change and improve only when we make them do so. I don’t think a boycott is the way to go about this; I remember that the U.S. boycott of the Soviet games solved nothing. What we need to do is develop a solid plan to wipe out the devastation of Darfur, and implement it. We’d spend a hell of a lot less than we’re spending on the war in Iraq. Additionally, we need to negotiate with China on the Tibet issue.
There are solutions to these issues if we wish to pursue them. Unfortunately, we seem to lack the political will to do so. Meredith, thanks again for a great essay, and for stimulating thought and discussion on these serious issues.
2 Aaron Nathan (anathan10) // May 9, 2008 at 5:37 pm
I really could not care less about the Olympic Games. It wouldn’t bother me in the least if we used it as a foreign policy pressure-point to get something from China–in fact, if they care about it enough that possible boycotts could yield some progress, I think that’s the best reason in the first place for allowing them to host the games. But for some reason I don’t think that President Bush threatening not to come to their party will get anything done on any of your three counts. In the meantime, I have to register my utter astonishment and horror that the disaster in Burma has not been plastered across the front page of every paper in capital, 46 pt. letters all week long. Hard to remember if I’ve ever read a more…something….article than this one: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/world/asia/10scene.html?hp
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