So I watched about 8 hours of college football yesterday, and supplemented that with another hour of NCAA 2009, and came to the inescapable conclusion that I should probably be getting more out of my college experience than appreciating just how terrible my fall is going to be as a Michigan fan. Seriously, I’m fairly sure that I could make better reads in the pocket than Nick Sheridan did during much of yesterday’s home loss against the University of Utah. I came out of my college football viewing marathon yesterday with a number of absolute certainties about how this season is going, and seeing as I’ve been a professional college football prognosticator for at least as long as Sarah Palin has been an expert on nuclear nonproliferation and American Mideast policy, I see no reason why these off the cuff observations should not be recognized as the jewels of gridiron prophecy that they so clearly are.
1) The Atlantic 10…I mean, the ACC, is really, really, bad. I could write a few more “reallys” here, but it would be getting somewhat redundant. As a Connecticut native and a UConn guy, I’ve always been less than enamored of the ACC, which, as I’m sure some of you remember, essentially pirated three schools from the Big East during the summer of 2004. The idea was, by gutting the Big East of Miami, Va Tech, and BC, that the ACC would become one of the country’s premier football powerhouses, and cement its college hoops domination. This has worked perfectly, in the sense that since the takeover, the ACC has won one fewer BCS bowl game than Sarah Palin has full years of experience running a community whose population couldn’t fit comfortably inside the Mullins Center. (Also, the ACC got exactly half the Big Dance bids last year that the Big East received.) Yesterday, it became abundantly clear that the conference ought to refine its football goals from competitiveness (dominance being long gone) to minimizing abject humiliation. Take Clemson, for instance. This was supposed to be by far the best team in the conference, and a sleeper BCS finalist. Its strength was vaunted backfield duo CJ Spiller and James Davis, which had racked up over 1800 total yards last season. Then Clemson ran into an actual football team, the Alabama Crimson Tide, which plays in a conference, the SEC, which contains other actual football programs. Spiller and Davis combined to rack up an impressive total of 20 yards behind an offensive line which had, presumably, decided to wander off to explore beautiful Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Tide rolled, 34-10, and the ACC fell firmly behind the Mountain West in terms of number of legitimate BCS teams. But that’s not nearly all. In other bouts with major conference teams, North Carolina State and Virginia represented their conference proudly, losing by a combined score of 86-7. Honorable mention goes to North Carolina and Maryland. UNC was supposed to be a power in the ACC under Butch Davis, and cemented that status with a close 35-27 victory over McNeese State. The Terps, for their part, basically broke the scoreboard against Delaware, ripping the Blue Hens (I think that’s what they’re called) defense to shreds for 14 points. What do Delaware and McNeese have in common? They are not, if you want to get all technical, in Division 1-A. Next week’s opponents for Delaware and McNeese St? West Chester and Delta State, which I can only assume are high schools. Finally, after # 17 Virginia Tech lost in dramatic fashion to East Carolina on the road (blocked punt returned for a TD in the late fourth quarter), the commentators termed the defeat “not an upset.” I think that pretty much sums up the state of disrepute into which ACC football has fallen, and irrefutably demonstrates that karma exists.
2) It’s going to be a long, long season in Ann Arbor. Compared to last season’s opening debacle against Appalachian State, this game was a mixed bag. One the one hand, because Utah is actually a legitimate football team with an outside shot at sneaking into the BCS, it was not as horrifically embarrassing. (Of course, if Lloyd Carr had been caught having sex with a 12 year old Thai prostitute in an Ohio State boosters club, it would not have been as embarrassing as last year’s defeat.) On the other, last year’s team held out some promise of winning other games that season, which this year’s edition of the Maize and Blue decidedly did not. Let’s consider the problems facing Rich Rodriguez’ squad.
a ) Quarterbacks: At this point Michigan has three legitimate options at QB. The first is sophomore Nick Sheridan, yesterday’s starter. He walked on to the team, and last year was the 4th string QB. While he led a touchdown drive against Utah, it should be noted that said drive started approximately on Utah’s 25. He also threw a truly awful interception, and probably should have had more, because he made some pretty inexplicable reads. The good news is, he was valedictorian of his high school class, begging the question of why he’s at Michigan and not Amherst. The second is Steve Threet, a transfer student from Georgia Tech, who was third-string last year and played a little better than Sheridan in the second half, with two short TD drives. However, Threet was unable to get the Wolverines over the hump when they were down 25-23 for much of the 4th quarter. The third option is, of course, Sarah Palin, who, while she has no football playing experience, played high school basketball and earned the nickname “Sarah Barracuda,” making her at least as qualified to run the Michigan offense as she would be to potentially be president. (OK, I swear, that was the last Palin joke.) Seriously, though, the bottom line is that neither Sheridan nor Threet is a particularly good QB, and certainly not one suited for Rich Rodriguez’ spread attack.
b) Running backs: Here Michigan actually has a little bit of experience, as Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor played some last year during Mike Hart’s injury. Rodriguez, though, opted to have YouTube hurdling sensation Sam McGuffie take the plurality of the carries. McGuffie got the ball 8 times for an aaah…shall we say pedestrian 8 total yards. Minor and Brown combined for 25 on 5 total handoffs. Unfortunately, with Minor hurt, Michigan will have to keep relying on McGuffie to a certain extent. Again, if this is what happened to him against Utah, imagine what it’ll be like against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State.
c) Wideouts: Michigan lost a lot here, with Manningham and Arrington both leaving, and Sheridan and Threet’s chances of getting bailed out by the receiving corps haven’t been improved by an injury to Greg Matthews, Michigan’s only truly experienced and high quality wideout. Like with Minor, we’ll see how long this injury keeps him out, and how the Maize and Blue will carry on without him.
d) The Defense: Should be undoubtedly the strength of this team, but was awful in the first half. Stiffened in the second, only allowing a field goal, but with Michigan’s offense, it can’t let the Wolverines get far down if they want a chance at victory.
To be perfectly honest, looking at Michigan’s schedule, there seem to be very few confidence-inspiring matchups, other than Miami (OH) and Toledo. I think Michigan will be lucky to start the Rodriguez era at 6-6. 5-7, or even a Notre Dame-esque 4-8 are more likely.
3) USC is for real. Everyone knew that the Trojans would trot out an impressive defense this season. They didn’t disappoint on the road against a big conference opponent (OK, I know Virginia is mediocre, and from the ACC), giving up just 212 yards of total offense and forcing four turnovers. The question was whether John David Booty’s understudy, Mark Sanchez, and the running back stable of CJ Gable, Joe McKnight, Allen Bradford and Stafon Johnson could shoulder the offensive load. The answer was a resounding yes, to the tune of 338 yards passing and three TDs for Sanchez, and over 200 yards of rushing combined. While Virginia’s bad, that sort of win on the road is still emphatic. At this point USC looks like the best team in the country, and if Chris Wells isn’t at 100 %, I think they’re a pretty good bet to beat the Buckeyes in Los Angeles in a couple of weeks.
4) Missouri has no defense, and doesn’t need one. OK, so Juice Williams, the Illini’s do-it-all QB, put up a whopping 461 total yards on the Tigers’ defense. What’s more amazing is that Mizzou still won, based on an offense built around Heisman hopeful Chase Daniel and receiving stud Jeremy Maclin. Illinois is a ranked team too, with a defense generally considered at least adequate, and for Missouri to put up 52 points, and make it look easy, is astounding. Also, looking at their schedule, there are no teams with particularly stingy defenses, or offenses that can go toe-to-toe with the Tigers’ high-octane attack. Sure, Texas away will be tough, but there is no reason why Missouri shouldn’t enter the Border War with Kansas undefeated and in position to play for the BCS title.
5) Quick baseball thoughts.
a) Great win for the Mets tonight. Visiting the Brewers is going to be one of the toughest series’ for the rest of the season, and the Mets are well on their way to taking it, especially as they faced Sheets today and miss Sabathia. Four comeback wins in five games isn’t too shabby either. Carlos Delgado has been playing out of his skin. Evidently, he decided in July that he didn’t really want to be playing for nothing but incentives for the rest of his career. That said, going into a huge three game set against the Phillies, I’m still not confident about our chances for October. We have to trot out Jon Niese every 5 days or so, and Billy Wagner shows no signs of coming back. I’m not sure the magnificent trio of Luis Ayala, Anthony Reyes, and Aaron Heilman can step into his shoes, and if Beltran injury tonight proves serious at all, the lineup will be seriously weakened. A timely run from the Phillies, and the Mets could be where they were last October - on the outside looking in.
b) Barring a major miracle, Yankee Stadium will be closing for baseball a few weeks earlier than most people expected. To say that I am happy at this development would be like saying that Kobe underperformed slightly in the NBA Finals.
c) It’s pretty absurd that Cliff Lee has almost a third of the Indians’ wins. The big question is whether he keeps it up next year. If that happens, Carmona reverts to something approximating last year’s form, and Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are healthy and consistent in 2009, the Tribe will contend.
d) I don’t think anybody will beat the Angels. Their lineup is amazing, especially with Texiera, their pitching staff is good, and K-Rod is the best closer in the league. If I’m them, I root for a late season charge by the Twins, because the Red Sox, if Beckett is healthy, are the only AL team with a prayer of beating them in a series. As for the NL, the Cubs could pose a challenge in the World Series, between Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden. That said, I’d still be shocked if the Halos don’t win the Series this year, and stake their claim alongside Boston as the decade’s most successful franchise.