Sorry for the Slate obsession. But I love that they did this. If you’re freaking out as much as I am about Gary, Indiana, get on it.
[Update, 1:04 a.m.] Eric Schultz gives his math below. Union County is all out, and there are 7,000 or so residents, which translates to 1900-3800 votes and a likely margin of a few hundred for Clinton. Apparently Gary is mostly in, so the margin for the rest of Lake could conceivably be below 65, or 75, his total in the first 28% of returns there. It’s going to be Rush Limbaugh thin–but the damage, I think, is done. Huffington Post has the headline “The Presumptive Nominee”; Drudge has “The Nominee”; Tim Russert just declared Obama the Heir Presumptive on MSNBC…Win or lose by just a few thousand, which we may not know until morning, Senator Clinton looks like she’s well on her way to remaining Senator Clinton. Or–gasp!–Vice President Clinton? As an Obama supporter who once thought that an Obama-Clinton ticket would have been asinine, I must admit I’ve changed my mind. I can’t think of another VP candidate with more draw to the ticket than Hillary Clinton. The question would be: would she want it, and would he have her? Both open questions, as of now.
[Update, 1:09 a.m.] Looks like Gary was all in by 1. The rest of Lake is in, and Obama’s margin there is only 55-35 overall. Clinton will win Indiana by about 22,000 votes overall, not a Rush Limbaugh-thin margin, but thin enough, to the tune of 50.9%-49.1%. 1.8% won’t net her nearly any delegates, and her popular vote gains from Pennsylvania are almost entirely gone. More in the morning, I’m sure, once we hear from the Clinton camp.
1 response so far ↓
1 Eric Schultz (eschultz10) // May 7, 2008 at 1:02 am
Obama trails by 16,000 currently with only 56% of Lake County reporting. That county is currently favoring Obama 65-35. If these results hold (and my math is correct), Obama could pick up a net gain of around 17,000 votes, which could be just enough to turn the tables. I also have noticed that Marion, Hamilton and Monroe counties (all heavily leaning towards Obama) still have a few percent of districts that have not reported, so there could be a few thousand net votes for Obama there. I don’t know if there are any Clinton-leaning districts that haven’t reported yet. This should be a close one, but I think Obama can pull it out.
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